KPMG Economics
A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.
What’s impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? KPMG Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.
Our latest thinking
Insight
Global Navigator from KPMG Economics
Tariffs stunt global growth: Financial system instability is showing
Insight
Walking a tightrope: Biannual economic outlook
Aggressive rate cuts could destabilize the bond market.
Insight
Construction in the crosshairs: Downside risks via shifts in trade and immigration policy
Immigrant workers helped cool excessive wage growth.
Insight
Gaming out trade wars: Parsing the impact
De-escalation is still possible.
Insight
Navigating increasingly complex supply chains: Five trends shaping the economic landscape
Inflation risks rise.
Insight
The care crisis: Eldercare collides with childcare
The advent of GenAI and the ways it can upskill formal care providers should reduce costs and improve care.
Insight
The parental work disruption index: A new measure of the childcare crisis
Lack of access to childcare results in millions of lost work hours, which have downstream effects on productivity.
Subscribe to insights from KPMG Economics
KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
Economic Coordinates
Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.
No results found.
Insight
Inflation increases, incomes drop & spending tumbles
Consumers caught between higher inflation and weaker incomes.
Insight
Household net worth, mostly stocks, plunged
Household debt increased at the slowest pace since COVID.
Insight
Misleading drop in retail sales
Uncertainty about prices weighs on households.
Insight
Inflation falls short
Fed remains on sidelines most of 2025.
No results found.
Insight
More jobs opened up in April
Low layoffs offset low hiring.
Insight
Jobs data reveal cracks in foundation of labor markets
People are dropping out of the labor force at their fasted pace since April 2020.
Insight
Job openings stuck in a range in April
We are expecting a slight uptick in unemployment by the end of this quarter.
Insight
Labor market fragility
Manufacturing employment is suffering from higher input costs and disruptions to supply chains.
No results found.
Insight
Powell stays uncomfortably on the sidelines
The Fed’s trajectory on rates was unchanged with two cuts.
Insight
Powell keeps head down
Forecast includes stagflation.
Insight
Powell in “wait and see” mode
The Fed is in no hurry to decide on rates.
Insight
The Fed retreats to the sidelines
Some of the damage to the economy is already underway.
No results found.
Insight
New home sales plunged in May
The housing market will not support the economy during the traditionally robust spring home buying season.
Insight
Housing starts fall sharply
Builders hit by higher costs as demand contracts.
Insight
April new home sales increase; existing home sales decrease
Economic uncertainty, high mortgage rates and rising costs of owning a home weigh down outlook.
Insight
Multifamily housing starts expanded
There is no silver bullet.
No results found.
Insight
Tariff pause ignites surge in manufacturing
Transportation orders rebounded sharply.
Insight
Utilities place drag on production
Industrial production drop not so severe.
Insight
Trade deficit narrowed in April
April revealed the largest one-month narrowing of the deficit on record.
Insight
Construction spending fell monthly and annually
Construction is cooling.
No results found.
Insight
Access to business loans tightens
A less favorable economic outlook
Insight
Banks are tightening credit
Banks tightened lending standards at year-end.
Insight
Loan demand weakens
There is reason for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates.
Insight
Bank lending is improving for consumers
Expect more rate cuts.
No results found.
Insight
Assessing LATAM potential
Latam growth slow but steady in 2025.
Insight
Look for weaker growth in Latam in 2025
Fiscal sustainability remains a concern.
Insight
Five key considerations as US faces port strike
45,000 dockworkers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast are poised to strike on October 1st unless a last-minute deal is brokered.
Insight
Latin America: Growth outlook hampered by sticky inflation
Inflation progress will slow.
KPMG Global Economic Outlook
Register now for the KPMG Global Economic Outlook webinar scheduled for June 5th. This session will feature regional Chief Economists, the Global Geopolitics Lead, the Global Trade and Customs leader, along with senior advisors from KPMG, offering an insightful quarterly briefing designed specifically for executive decision-makers.
KPMG Economics in the news:
- 3 Ways Trump’s Tariffs Could Affect the Biggest Shopping Events This Year
KPMG's chief economist Diane Swonk highlighted concerns about potential stagflation and the impact of tariffs on inflation, noting that recent cooling inflation might not last. KPMG's report underscores the uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions, emphasizing the potential economic challenges ahead. Walmart, facing pressure from tariffs, is expected to absorb some costs, as indicated by CEO Doug McMillon and supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
May 21, 2025 | GoBankingRates
- Consumers Show Signs of Strain Amid Trump's Tariff Rollout
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, highlights the vulnerability of the economy due to depleted savings and increased financial stress on households. KPMG's insights emphasize the importance of the labor market in sustaining consumer spending, as businesses reassess staffing needs amid slowing growth. The overall delinquency rate has reached its highest level since 2020, driven by student loan delinquencies, adding further strain on consumers.
May 16, 2025 | The New York Times
- Marketplace Morning Report - A future of economic friction
The head of America's central banking system warned today of possibly higher long-term interest rates and suggested that supply chains could get snarled by tariffs. We consult with Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG: “So we've got the calm before the storm. What we've seen is consumers have moved ahead of some of the price hikes that are out there. But we know they're coming. We know that the ports in California have been way down in terms of shipments in from China. And even as we try to restart trade from China, there will be some empty store shelves by the end of May. And we're seeing warnings across the board of price hikes that are coming in the pipeline. So, this may be the last really good inflation news we see in quite a while.”
May 15, 2025 | NPR
- On Balance with Leland Vittert: Are We Talking Ourselves into a Recession?
KPMG's senior economist, Yelena Maleyev, highlights the shift in consumer sentiment from 2022, noting increased concerns over job security and rising costs. conversation touches on the impact of tariffs on prices and consumer behavior, with Callie Cox emphasizing the importance of consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of GDP.
May 02, 2025 | NewsNation
- De minimis duty exemption closing is important, says KPMG’s Diane Swonk
CNBC’s Steve Liesman and KPMG’s Diane Swonk, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the latest jobs report.
May 02, 2025 | CNN TV
- U.S Stocks Dip at Open After U.S. Economy Goes Into Reverse
The U.S. economy experienced a contraction of 0.3% in GDP, marking the first decline since 2022, while core prices increased more than expected, indicating potential stagflation and recession concerns. KPMG's chief economist, Diane Swonk, highlighted the impact of tariffs and inventory buildups on economic growth, noting the Federal Reserve's challenges in managing inflation without the ability to cut rates quickly.
April 14, 2025 | CNN TV
Subscribe to insights from KPMG Economics
KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
About our team
