KPMG Economics

Economic Coordinates

Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.

• Will Trump Tariffs Spur Recession? Four Chief Economists Weigh In
  President Trump’s trade policies have sparked high levels of uncertainty over the future of the U.S. economy. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk joins economists from JPMorgan, Moody’s and The Economist Intelligence Unit as they break down their forecasts for a recession, increased inflation and more.
  April 28, 2025 | The Wall Street Journal Video

• U.S. Services Sector Faces Strain as Tariffs Ripple Through Broader Economy
  The U.S. exports about a trillion dollars worth of services each year that's about a third of all us exports. This would be things like law, consulting and accounting financial services. Services like these are not directly subject to retaliatory tariffs right now but the services sector will be indirectly affected by retaliatory tariffs on goods. That's because goods producers rely on the services sector. The big concern for the services sector as a whole both those that export and those that do all their business here is what will happen if the tariffs caused the whole economy to contract says Meagan Schoenberger senior economist at KPMG. “Because when economies either slow or enter recession, spend on services tends to decline,” she said.
  April 24, 2025 | NPR

• The Lead with Jake Tapper: Trump Shifts Tone on China, Fed Chair After CEO Warnings
  Jake Tapper: Let's bring in KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk right now. Diane, stocks are rebounding as the White House seemingly backtracks on tariffs and the potential for the firing of the Fed chair, Jerome Powell. But do you fear at all that permanent damage has been done just in the sense of the unpredictability, the instability, the capriciousness of the president's economic policies? Swonk: That is a concern. What we're seeing is stocks sort of react to any beacon of light amidst the storm of trade wars and the flurry of 178 executive orders or proclamations trying to change even the independence of independent agencies, including the Federal Reserve. And those are still out there. We've also seen a lot of movement on tariffs for everything, from unfair trade practices, dumping to national security matters, to other issues that are more permanent than those that are just signed by executive order, the emergency use of the tariffs that we're seeing out there.
  April 23, 2025 | CNN TV
  

• Experts see higher stagflation risks. Here’s what it means for your money
  Stagflation — an economic term used to describe a combination of rising inflation, slower economic growth and high unemployment — may be on the horizon, according to economists. Uncertainty is already showing up in consumer confidence, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “We’re seeing that kind of whiff of stagflation, where people are less secure about their jobs and they’re more worried about inflation down the road,” Swonk said. KPMG’s current forecast expects a shallow recession, with inflation peaking at the end of the third quarter. “It’s not even what we saw during the pandemic,” Swonk said of the inflation spike. But it would be enough for employment to slow and to prompt a mild bout of stagflation, she said.
  April 19, 2025 | CNBC

• Trump badgers Fed on rate cuts
  President Donald Trump blasted the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates and said its chair's "termination cannot come fast enough," ratcheting up pressure on the central bank as he continues a push to exert more power over Washington's independent agencies. The Fed is unlikely to bend; officials say they are guided by economic data. But the political pressure only adds to the list of challenges facing Powell and his colleagues, including risks to inflation, the job market and growth. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said central bankers around the world have been schooled in what happens when "politics wins over independence." The economy suffers over the long haul, she said. "Any short term gain you get by easing [policy] to juice employment, at a time when inflation may pick up, that comes back and haunts you with higher unemployment," Swonk said. "It's ingrained in any central banker's DNA."
  April 18, 2025 | The Washington Post
  

• Jose Diaz-Balart Reports: Trump - Tariffs On Semiconductors To Come Over Next Week
  KPMG's chief economist, Diane Swonk, highlights the economic uncertainty caused by tariffs and their potential impact on consumer behavior and business trust, which could lead to a recession. KPMG is concerned about the economic roller coaster, with consumers buying ahead of tariffs and companies facing hiring freezes, which could affect employment and lead to a recession.
  April 14, 2025 | CNBC TV

• When Elected Leaders Pursue Risky Policies, What Can Stop Them?
  Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, warns that Trump's new tariffs could reignite inflation just as it was stabilizing, posing a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve. For Trump, the last few weeks have revealed that his tolerance for risk and chaos remain high, leaving Americans uncertain about the future. And that could be costly. KPMG highlights the potential economic slowdown and recession risks due to the tariffs, which are expected to increase the U.S. tariff rate significantly. As Diane Swonk told my colleague Talmon Joseph Smith, “uncertainty is its own tax on the economy.”
  April 11, 2025 | MSNBC TV

• U.S. Markets Open in Bear Market Territory
  We will get our first look at the markets today as the country and the world react to President Trump's sweeping tariffs. Joining us is Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist: “Well, basically, the administration sees tariffs as a silver bullet to cure much of what ails us. And the markets are saying, no, they fail on all fronts. And I think that's very important to take into account what the markets are worried about now is that we not only have recession, but we could have stagflation with tariffs. That is the nature of tariffs are so large that they both force layoffs because firms can't absorb all of the costs, but they also force them to pass along some of those costs to consumers.”
  April 07, 2025 | CNN TV

• KPMG's Swonk Cautions About Potential for Stagflation
  KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk sees stagflation as a risk amid the Trump administration's tariff policy and expects economic growth to contract this year.
  April 04, 2025 | Bloomberg TV

• U.S. added 228,000 jobs in March as economy showed strength in buildup to Trump trade wars
  U.S. employers added a surprising 228,000 jobs last month, showing that the American labor market was in solid shape as President Trump embarked on a risky trade war with the rest of the world. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. The hiring numbers were up from 117,000 in February and were nearly double the 130,000 that economists had expected. U.S. Labor Department revisions shaved 48,000 jobs off January and February payrolls. Economists say the jobs numbers provide a rearview mirror look at the economy and worry about damage going forward from the sweeping “Liberation Day’’ import taxes announced on Wednesday. “This could be the high water mark as we go into spring,’’ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. Economic uncertainty remains high, she said. "Do the tariffs hold? Does the trade war escalate? How disorderly do markets get? There’s a lot of things in play right now.''
  April 04, 2025 | The Associated Press